Economic Prospects, Public finance, Economic development
Finland’s gross domestic product is expected to contract by 6% in 2020. In addition to the exports, private consumption and private investments will also decrease. Higher public spending will support economic growth this year.
The economy will start recovering during the second half of this year. However, the recovery will be slow because there is more economic uncertainty and consumers are more cautious about making spending decisions. Fall in housing construction is also slowing down the recovery of investments. The GDP is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2021 and by 1.7% in 2022.
General government debt will rise rapidly this year. General government deficit will be more than eight per cent and general government debt-to-GDP ratio will exceed 70%. The imbalance between revenue and expenditure will narrow in the coming years as the temporary support measures are expiring and the economy picks up. General government finances will, however, remain substantially in the deficit as we approach the mid-2020s.
There is a great deal of uncertainty in the economic outlook in both Finland and in the world as a whole. The assumption in the forecast is that the covid-19 pandemic will gradually fade away and that there will not be any second wave in the autumn. However, consumer confidence and Finland’s economic performance remain weak as long as there is no effective coronavirus vaccine or treatment.