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Finland's gross domestic product is expected to grow by 3.4% in 2021. The deterioration of the COVID-19 pandemic in late 2021 increases uncertainty for economic decision-makers and will temporarily slow down economic growth around the turn of the year. Finland's GDP growth will remain at 3.0 per cent in 2022, as production in many sectors is still below the pre-pandemic level. However, economic growth will slow down and Finland's GDP is expected to grow by 1.5% in 2023 and by 1.4% in 2024.
In the forecast, the deterioration of the pandemic is expected to slow down the recovery of the economy temporarily. Uncertainties related to the manner in which the disease develops, virus mutations and vaccination coverage have again increased.
Energy prices will sustain inflation around the turn of the year and will gradually turn to a decline during 2022. The underlying factors behind the high inflation are related to both supply and demand. The rise in inflation is expected to be temporary as the disturbances in demand and supply are gradually eased.
The general government deficit will decrease substantially in 2021–2023. However, the deficit will not be fully eliminated during the period of rapid economic growth. Debt relative to GDP will also decrease temporarily as the economy recovers and the deficit is reduced. The debt ratio will again turn to growth as economic growth slows down.